Monday Must Read: Odds of Whitman or Fiorina Winning Are Less Than 5 Percent; Prop. 19 Outcome Unclear



Stories you shouldn't miss:

1. Republicans Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina each have less than a 5 percent chance of winning tomorrow, New York Times statistician Nate Silver forecasts. Whitman has only a 4 percent shot at defeating Jerry Brown, while Fiorina has just a 4.6 percent chance of upsetting Barbara Boxer. But Democratic victories in California appear to be an anomaly. Silver continues to predict that Republicans will pick up 53 seats in the House, and will take a 232-203 advantage. Dems, he predicts, will hang on to a 52-48 advantage in the Senate. He also has Republicans taking a 30-19 advantage in governors’ mansions.

2. A Field Poll released over the weekend showed Proposition 19 trailing 49 percent to 42 percent, the Chron reported. But it was a live-caller poll, and other surveys have showed that voters may be reluctant to tell people that they’re in favor of legalizing pot. Computer-automated polls have showed Prop 19 winning. The Field Poll also showed Prop 23, the anti-green measure, losing 48 percent to 33 percent, while Prop 25, which would lower the vote requirement for state budgets to a simple majority, is leading 48 percent to 31 percent.

3. The Field Poll also shows a very tight race for state attorney general between San Francisco County DA Kamala Harris and Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley, the Chron reported. The poll has Cooley barely leading 39 percent to 38 percent, with Harris finally moving ahead in voter-rich LA County. The poll also shows San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom leading Abel Maldonado, 42 percent to 37 percent, in the lieutenant governor’s race.

4. With Democrats likely losing control of the House, there is speculation that Nancy Pelosi may resign from Congress. The Chron notes that former House speakers Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert both quit immediately after Republicans lost their majorities. Pelosi’s record of pushing through President Obama’s agenda has made her a favorite target of Republicans and conservative pundits, prompting moderate Democrats around the country to distance themselves from her.

5. Fiorina has attacked Boxer for hiring her son, Doug Boxer, an Oakland planning commissioner, as a well-paid political consultant. But the LA Times looks into it and concludes that Boxer appears to have done nothing wrong and that Doug Boxer seems to be very effective.

6. Nine young people were wounded in a shooting spree at a Halloween Party in Oakland’s uptown district on Saturday night, the Trib reports. The party, at Sweet’s Ballroom on Broadway, was billed as the biggest “college party in the Bay Area,” and it drew about 600 attendees. But the party turned into chaos when a gunman opened fire.

7. And the Giants are one win away from taking the 2010 World Series, after beating the Texas Rangers last night 4-0, thanks to the superb pitching by rookie Madison Bumgarner. The Giants now lead the series 3-1, and Game Five is tonight.