by David Downs
Legalization Nation reported Wednesday that predicting the outcome of the Nov. 3 ballot initiative to Control and Tax Cannabis 2010 is like reading tea leaves, or consulting a Magic 8-Ball. Add the data from famed "prediction market" InTrade.com to that list. TaxCannabis2010 is currently predicted to win on the market.
InTrade.com lets people all around the world bet on the outcomes of political events and many other events with clearly delineated outcomes. The crowds are often wise. According to the New York Times, Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008. (Damn you, Indiana!) InTrade traders correctly guessed the outcome of the presidential election all 50 states in 2004.
When there is enough participation, the electronic market serves as a vast aggregator of individual opinions, boiling them down into a conclusion resembling reality, or at least conventional wisdom.
Increased activity this Summer will give InTrade.com's predictions more weight. [Via DPFCA]